Abstract

VALDEZ BLANCO, Dindo. Study of the transmission of COVID-19 in Bolivia through the Galton Watson process. Revista Varianza [online]. 2022, n.19, pp. 46-54. ISSN 9876-6789.

Abstract Currently, the COVID-19 pandemic has been the subject of study from many approaches, one of them is the analysis of the evolution of the virus and the new cases reported, specifically for the determination of the average transmission of the disease and the probability extinction of the same, the methodology of this work analyzes the behavior of the virus in Bolivia from its appearance in the month of April 2020 to January 30, 2022 as a Galton-Watson stochastic process to determine the average reproduction in each month and the probability of extinction of COVID-19 for each month, so that some pattern or systematic behavior is obtained that is useful for monitoring the virus

Keywords : Branching processes; reproduction rate; extinction probability; stochastic processes.