Abstract

PAREDES ALARCON, Marisol. Modelos de elección discreta aplicados a datos simulados como aproximación a un modelo de transporte para la ciudad de La Paz. Revista Varianza [online]. 2019, n.16, pp. 45-54. ISSN 9876-6789.

Abstract This document develops statistical models of discrete choice, by comparing logit and probit multinomial models, inorderto design a model forthe mode of transport chosenby the inhabitants of the city of La Paz, with the help of related simulated data in sources from household surveys on travel. Since household surveys are one of the ways of collecting informationbut quite expensive, it is encouraged to use simulated data. The results obtained indicate that the costs, the waiting time of the section and the duration of the section, are decisive in the choice of the mode of transport for the inhabitants of the city of La Paz, a difference of the sociodemographic variables. The improved multinomial logistics model emphasizes more economical modes of transport such as those chosen by the population, such as going to a cake, and also those that weigh the waiting time for boarding, specifically a more efficient, safe and faster way of transport such as they are the new modalities of Pumakatari and Cable Car. While on the opposite side and with the least probability of being chosen, you have the minibus and take, followed by the micro, bus, minibus, which encourage an improvement of your technical capacity and economic proposal to offer a better service to the citizens

Keywords : Transport models; logit model; probit model; simulation.