Abstract

TORRICO ALBINO, Juan Carlos. Vulnerability and adaptation options ofpotato crop (Solanum tuberosum L.) to the climate changefor conditions of Altiplano and Valleys of Bolivia. CienciAgro [online]. 2018, vol.8, n.1, pp. 1-14. ISSN 2072-1404.

ABSTRACT Climate change is affecting the entire ecological and socio-economic system of the planet. Agricultural systems are highly dependent on climatic factors which makes them highly vulnerable to their changes. The cultivation of potatoes is strategic for the food security in Bolivia. The climatic scenarios indicate that extreme changes and changes in the normal behavior will be experienced more frequently, which could have a different impact on the potato crop. The objectives of this study were: i) to generate climate scenarios up to the year 2030; ii) build scenarios based on real data of soil, climate and crop; and iii) quantify the effect of climate change on potato cultivation in the Valles and Altiplano region of Bolivia. The model " Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer" (DSSAT) was used, calibrated and validated for local conditions and the potato crop Sani imilla. The results showed that there will be an increase in temperature and precipitation in both regions. Potato cultivation is very sensitive to changes in climatic parameters. The yields rise up to 4.6% for every 10 years, additionally it could increase up to 6.6% if the CO₂ concentration is doubled till 660 ppm. The most efficient adaptation measure is irrigation, applications from 60 mm to 180 mm would increase the yield between 30% to 60%. The model showed little sensitivity to the different sowing dates. Although yields increase, they can decrease and reach 2030 with a drop in yields of up to 48% as a result of the low water compensation due to the higher evapotranspiration. In conclusion, on the basis of the model, temperatures will rise in the Altiplano and Valles, and higher yields can be achieved if this increase in temperature is combined with irrigation. These results can be used to direct technical assistance and decision-making programs in agricultural planning.

Keywords : Bolivia; potato crop; adaptation to climate change; DSSAT; Climate models.