Resumo

URQUIDI, B.C; TRUJILLO, B.C  e  GONZALES, JM. Prognosis and alcoholic relapse at the Hospital Psiquiátrico N° 14, Caja Nacional de Salud. Cuad. - Hosp. Clín. [online]. 2014, vol.55, n.1, pp. 07-12. ISSN 1652-6776.

Abstract Objective: To estimate the time to alcoholic relapse at the psychiatric hospital No. 14 and to estimate a predictive model of prognostic factors in clinical records. Methods: This is a historical cohort descriptive study. The cohort was constructed with the information contained in 70 clinical records. The onset of the study was considered when the patient was admitted for the first time and considered a follow-up period of 6 months. The time to alcoholic relapse and predictive model was estimated with the Kaplan-Meier estimator and Cox regression model. Results: The mean age was 44.5 years, 23.1 months for the time of alcohol intake and 16.2 drinking days and alcohol intake before the relapse. The 61% of the patients were married. At 6 months, 51% of patients experienced at least one alcoholic relapse. Controlling for confounders, predictors of relapse were age (HR 0.7CI95% 0.5, 0.99), time of alcohol intake (HR 1.5 CI95% 1.1,2.2), while previous intake relapse (HR 1.2 95% 0.97, 1.5) having a partner (HR <0.002 95% <0.004, 0.05), good relationship with partner (HR 0.002 95% <0.006, 0.4) and drug use (HR 58.6IC95% 1.2, 2977). Conclusion: The estimated time to first alcoholic relapse of psychiatric hospital patients is 5.8 months. Controlling for confounders, the predictors of first relapse are drug use, longer drinking and alcohol intake prior to a relapse

Palavras-chave : Alcoholism; alcoholic; relapse; prognosis.