Resumo

ALAVI, Gavi; DIELS, Jan; WILLEMS, Patrick  e  GARCIA, Magali.   Simulation of Quinoa Production (AquaCrop) with Generated Future Climate scenarios (LARS-WG and QPM) in the Bolivian Altiplano.. RIIARn [online]. 2015, vol.2, n.1, pp. 7-13. ISSN 2409-1618.

ABSTRACT The Bolivian Altiplano is a semi-arid to arid region with harsh conditions for agriculture (4000 masl). Quinoa (Chenopodium quinoa Willd.), a highly nutritious food, is well adapted to Altiplano's unfavorable conditions. The objective of this research was to forecast the impact of climate change on quinoa in 3 locations of the Bolivian Altiplano (Viacha, Patacamaya and Rio Mulatos). Two downscaling methods were used to generate future climate scenarios (SRE and RCP scenarios): LARS (B1, A1B and A2 scenarios for SRE) and QPM (4.5 and 8.5 for RCP). Precipitation, minimum and maximum temperature for three different periods: 2030s, 2050s and 2090s were generated. AquaCrop estimated the crop productivity. Among results, the minimum and maximum temperatures will increase more for the RCP scenarios than SRE scenarios by 2030s and 2090s. The monthly precipitation will not show significant changes during the dry season The number of frost years will reduce. The AquaCrop model estimated that the average cropping cycle will reduce for all locations and scenarios. Thereby, the results indicated that if the management conditions on the field (rainfed, soil with poor fertility, etc.) are similar to the current, the yield will not change much for the SRE scenarios. Besides, RCPs showed in Patacamaya and Viacha is expected that the yield will decrease in a range of 0,1 to 0,2 Mg/ha. Finally, in Patacamaya and Rio Mulatos the yield losses by water stress have shown an increasing pattern and in Viacha it was seen slight decrease of the water stress. Then, positive and negative effects on quinoa crop are expected in the Bolivian Altiplano.

Palavras-chave : LARS-WG; QPM; downscaling; quinoa; frost periods; Altiplano; Bolivia.